An early look at the race for the 2028 GOP presidential nomination
Last week we previewed the 2028 race for the Democratic presidential nomination. Now let’s turn to the GOP.
As with the Democratic field, already there are several handicappers out there. But to start, we need to look at the two major factors that influence these elections.
The nature of the party’s coalition
The dynamics of the race — the so-called “Invisible Primary” and the order of primary states
First and foremost: understanding the Republican coalition
If you read the last post, you know we leaned on the Pew Charitable Trusts surveys, as well as a post-2024 election analysis put together by Larry Sabato. The most useful breakdown of the Republican party’s coalition has been provided by Pew in their exhaustive survey four years ago and more recently in April 2024. It is also useful to look at this post-election analysis (Sabato’s), which draws in part on Pew.
The Last Mugwump’s estimated percentage support for each component of the Republican coalition extrapolates from the hard numbers in the 2021 Pew report and the evolution of the coalition suggested by the subsequent studies. The coalition is made up of:
Faith and Flag Conservatives (approaching 30% of the total) — older, committed Christians, active in politics, very conservative across the board
The Populist Right (approaching 25% of the primary electorate) — less educated, more rural, anti-immigration and generally socially conservative, suspicious of big business thus less conservative on economics
Committed Conservatives (roughly 20% of the total) — better educated, conservative on everything but especially economics, essentially Reagan Republicans
The Ambivalent Right (approaching 20%) — younger, not particularly religious, conservative on economics but not as much on immigration and other social issues
Stressed Sideliners (less than 10%) — less active in politics, less well-off, mixed political views leaning liberal on economics and conservative on social issues, not reliable Republicans
Broadly speaking, groups 1 and 2 comprise the Hard Right wing of the party: nationalist, anti-immigrant, and focused on abortion and other social issues.
3 and 4, the Traditional Conservatives, are more focused on lower taxes, smaller government, and other concerns of business, while less focused on social issues, with some even inclined to support immigration reform.
The last group, the Stressed Sideliners, is less important in the primary campaign given that its participation rate is the lowest and its support is not as predictable.
The important thing when looking at 2028 is that the Hard Right has the upper-hand with the once dominant Traditional Conservatives facing an uphill climb in the battle for the nomination. This state of affairs is a sea change from the GW Bush/Romney/Ryan party of just over a decade ago, indicative of the lasting success of Trump’s populist insurgency. He vanquished a divided GOP establishment in 2016 and consolidated his hold on the party probably because of,1 not in spite of, his relentless resistance to the 2020 election outcome.
In short, the chances of success for a Traditional Conservative probably depend on their coalescing behind one candidate and the Hard Right dividing its votes among multiple candidates. Of course ultimately the ideal is to have some crossover appeal between the two factions.
The Invisible Primary
Arthur Hadley published a book in 1975 called The Invisible Primary. Actual primaries had just become dominant in the nomination race that decade; Hadley’s insight was that, in order to compete in primary elections over the course of several months, candidates for the 1976 nomination would need to set themselves up for success in the year or so prior to voting.
He broke down the key factors that would determine viability — 1) raising money, 2) hiring the best consultants, 3) showing favorably in the media, 4) having a plausible strategy for winning enough delegates, 5) generating support at the activist grassroots level (including “influencers” if we’re to update Hadley’s formulation), and 6) having sufficient drive and single-mindedness to handle the rigors of the campaign.
Hadley’s goal was to anticipate who of the dozen or so candidates for the Democratic nomination had done well enough in this unofficial primary to have a real shot. By using his system, he, unlike any other observer at the time, put the unknown long shot Jimmy Carter in the top tier.
The Invisible Primary, he maintained, effectively served the function of winnowing out candidates who didn’t have what it takes. And we have seen in the decades since that many throw in the towel before a single vote is cast; the Invisible Primary is a tough test.
The order of primary states
Although the importance of the Invisible Primary is widely acknowledged, it is probably true that more ink is spilled on the order of the primary calendar. Republicans are likely to retain the traditional kick-off states, with the Iowa precinct caucuses starting things off in January and the New Hampshire primary coming a little over a week later. Nevada and South Carolina would likely follow with February events.
We can say two things for sure about the serialized primary process that stretches from winter into spring in the presidential election year:
The process is grueling and incredibly expensive, thus giving early states the power to ruthlessly winnow the field of candidates who have survived the Invisible Primary; and
it is decidedly not the case that losing early primaries dooms a candidate. On the Democratic side both Bill Clinton in 1992 and Biden in 2020 had a tough go of it in the first states before rising up in later bigger states. Eventual nominees Romney (‘12) and Trump (‘16) lost in Iowa (Romney also lost in South Carolina), and 2008 nominee John McCain lost in several early states. .
Handicapping — Introducing the Republican Top Ten
Now that we’ve established the analytical tools to assess what goes on in the presidential nomination process, let’s get to the fun part. Who among the Republicans is positioning him/herself best as the Invisible Primary kicks off?
After scanning various media outlets, we identified 21 candidates who get repeated mentions, although some are obviously long shots. We’ll use this footnote2 as our archive of those candidates — the early master list.
Our view is that 10 from that list are showing the best in the Invisible Primary, having the strongest arguments for viability at this point. Here are those candidates in alphabetical — not rank — order, with a brief commentary on why they made the cut and their broader appeal and prospects.
Senator Ted Cruz
Cruz has always been able to gain attention from his platform in the Senate, and he has experience running a presidential campaign that did reasonably well (which means he has a track record on money and staffing). His roots in the Hard Right wing of the party are particularly strong among conservative Christians. This time around he seems to be banking on generating crossover support with Traditional Conservatives by focusing on libertarian concerns. At the end of the day his off and on embrace of Trump may be hard to overcome.
Governor Ron DeSantis
DeSantis is single-minded in focus and has access to money and consultants. In 2020 he was the candidate with the most potential to bring together the two wings of the party, but his campaign was of course unable to overcome the Trump juggernaut. Some in the rank and file regarded his aggressive 2024 challenge to Trump as excessive, thus he may find it hard to find traction in 2028 despite his many advantages.
Former Governor Nikki Haley
Haley is a favorite of the Traditional Conservatives and the mainstream media, and as such has the potential to put together a strong campaign. If she can consolidate support in her lane she could be formidable, but she’d need to mend fences with the Hard Right in order to become truly viable.
Governor Brian Kemp
Kemp is another favorite of Traditional Conservatives, but there are a lot of questions to be answered. Does he have the discipline and drive for a presidential campaign? Can his appeal translate outside of Georgia? Will he be hampered by his refusal to get behind election denialism? And he, like Haley, would have to find a way to build support among the Hard Right to have a real shot.
Secretary of DHS Kristi Noem
Noem is untested in the realm of national politics, although her time at DHS should provide a decent training ground. Her department is front and center, and to this point she has shown up well in Trump circles. There are so many questions, though, surrounding her discipline, media presence, and ability to attract grassroots and financial support sufficient to make a real go of it.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio
Rubio may be in a good spot to bridge the two wings of the party, but doing that is awfully tricky. His roots are more traditional and establishment than seem to be in favor, but at the same time his support of the Trump foreign policy agenda gives him a chance. While his 2016 campaign was flawed, that’s a long time ago and his experience since then likely gives him the opportunity to put together a first-class campaign. By and large his media image has remained relatively untarnished. There’s little doubt he’ll go for it.
Senator Tim Scott
The 2020 experience didn’t do much for Scott other than show that, unlike DeSantis, he can stay on Trump’s good side. He may not have the drive to make another campaign happen, but if he does he is a potential bridge between the wings of the party. His style, however, is non-confrontational, which seems not to be what is in favor among the Hard Right voters.
Donald J. Trump Jr.
While Trump Jr. comes with an automatic seal of approval from the boss, which means he could raise money and maybe even gain grassroots support, he is utterly untested in electoral politics and may not be convincing as an erstwhile facsimile of the real thing.
Vice President JD Vance
Maybe better positioned than Trump Jr. is the vice president. Vance has become a darling of the president and the Hard Right, successfully overcoming his author days that had him in good stead with the old GOP establishment and the mainstream media. If anyone can capture the Hard Right wing, it is probably he. The unanswered question has to do with his lack of big-time campaign experience. Does he have what it takes for the long haul? Unclear, but if anyone is in a position to phone it in in the early phases of the Invisible Primary and make up the distance starting in mid-late 2027 it’s probably Vance.
Governor Glenn Youngkin
Youngkin’s rhetoric is more hard-edged than he gets credit for, but unfortunately for him his reputation as calm and steady is well-entrenched. He may be as well-positioned to consolidate the Traditional Conservative wing as anyone, but that is not enough. Whether he can broaden his appeal to the Hard Right is hard to say, but no one should doubt his single-mindedness, discipline, and ability to attract big money. Attracting the grassroots will be more problematic.
Final thoughts
This exercise is even more speculative than the Democratic one we did last week, as prospective candidates of the party in power are usually wary of campaigning in such a way as to be construed as critical of their president. And in this cycle, we have a special circumstance that makes any overt efforts aimed at 2028 especially problematic.
That circumstance? Notwithstanding the constitutional prohibition on third presidential terms, President Trump has not ruled out running again. He cannot help teasing about a third term, as this Politico article suggests, even when he says he will ‘probably not’ run. In effect this freezes the GOP field’s ambitions for now.
Trump never lost the support of the rank and file despite the fervent hopes of establishment Republicans that he would become irrelevant after January 6. Consider the fate of then-Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, former Vice President Mike Pence, and other Republicans who rejected election denialism; they were the ones who suffered a rapid descent into irrelevance. (My favorite is Geoff Duncan, former Lieutenant Governor of Georgia, who made the journey from conservative Republican to 2026 Democratic candidate for governor. Oh, and the Georgia GOP excommunicated him for his 2020 election apostasy.)
The field of potential candidates
Governors: Glenn Youngkin, Greg Abbott, Sarah Huckabee-Sanders, Brian Kemp, and Ron DeSantis
Senators: Ted Cruz, Tim Scott, Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley, and Rand Paul
Representatives: Don Bacon and Marjorie Taylor-Green
Administration officials: Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Director of ODNI Tulsi Gabbard, and DHS Secretary Kristi Noem
Others: businessmen Donald Trump Jr and Eric Trump, gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, former Governor Nikki Haley, and gadfly Steven Bannon