A quick take on the alleged existence of Trump-Mamdani voters

Jesus Rodriguez explored the potential phenomenon of the Trump-Mamdani voter in an article in today’s Washington Post. The evidence he provided for there being a substantial number of these voters was largely anecdotal and circumstantial. But when you consider that “populism is not an ideology; it’s an emotion,” as he quotes a young Republican politico as saying, this voting pattern makes a kind of sense.

Rodriguez isn’t the first to speculate on the phenomenon. The Hill found circumstantial evidence, largely in the existence of areas of the city that trended toward Trump in 2024 that in turn were won by Mamdani. The Gothamist went further:

[Our] analysis found that Mamdani won 30% of the primary election districts Trump won in the 2024 general election and garnered over 35,000 votes in districts that went for Trump. Around the Jamaica Hills, Queens intersection where Mamdani filmed last November, voters in 2024 moved toward the GOP by nearly 25 points. On Tuesday, Mamdani won there with 84.2% of the vote.

So it does look like there is something there.

This space explored a related phenomenon late last year, making the case that the left-right issue-based political spectrum that continues to drive political analysis doesn’t help much in explaining so much of what is going on in our politics. Why did many rural Obama voters switch to Trump between 2012 and 2016? Why did a sizable number of Bernie Bros flip in ‘16 to Trump after the Democratic primaries? Why did down-the-line liberals fall in love with Liz Cheney?

One factor is that a lot of swing voters are not issue-focused; instead, they tend to either be angry about the state of things and/or are pretty much disengaged from policy debates. The decider for them isn’t bigger or smaller government. It isn’t social issues either. Rather it’s their view that the country is seriously on the wrong track. If you want change, any change, that old left-right thing doesn’t seem to matter much.

On the other side of the coin are people appalled by raw populist appeals — many of whom follow politics and policy closely — who may find themselves embracing politicians they don’t agree with on the issues of the day. Take the liberals who fell for Liz Cheney as Exhibit A.

Of course centrist Democrats believe the Mamdani Democratic Socialist message is wrong on policy and political grounds. But they find themselves facing a tricky equation: Can you shed the establishment mantle and tap into the discontent out there at the same time as you put forward a center-left platform? Chris Murphy, Abigail Spanberger, Andy Beshear, Ruben Gallego, et al, certainly aim to find out.